Exchange Rate Strategies and Fiscal Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal performance and movements in the exchange rates, the terms of trade, and other macroeconomic aggregates in 28 sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-91 period. It finds that the tax base in most of these countries is heavily dependent on imports and import substitutes. Consequently, an overvaluation of the exchange rate in countries that adopt a fixed exchange rate strategy (CFA franc zone countries), when the purpose of the strategy is to restore the real exchange rate to its equilibrium through fiscal contraction, can result in a widening of the fiscal deficit. Those countries with a variable exchange rate strategy fail to attain price stability but are able to enhance their fiscal balance, competitiveness, and growth.