Exchange Rate Volatility: The Role of Real Shocks and the Velocity of Money.

The effects of stochastic output shocks on the behavior of exchange rates and nominal price levels is studied within the context of a two-country, cash-in-advance model. The analysis of this model, in contrast to the existing cash-in-advance literature, demonstrates that exchange rates can be more volatile than price levels even though agents' elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods is greater than one-half. This possibility arises when output shocks are autocorrelated and are due to revisions in expectations that affect the terms of trade and/or the velocity of money. Copyright 1989 by Oxford University Press.