Exogeneities and Endogeneities of Urban Commercial Property Yield Cycles

The paper begins by reviewing a stylised urban commercial property yield cycle. It then considers endogenous and particularly exogenous influences on the cycle including the role of macroeconomic factors such as interest rate changes and the property investment climate. A central issue that is addressed is the efficiency of the commercial property market in responding to fundamental variables. The focus of the research is on the differentials between cities in terms of yield levels and cycles. The empirical analysis compares the experience of the major provincial cities of the UK based on yields, equivalent yields and trends in investment funding from the IPD database.