Expecting Brexit and UK Migration : Should I Go?

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK as well as on the attractiveness of other EU countries as destinations. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. Our results show that expecting Brexit and the resulting migration policy uncertainty (i) reduced migration inflows from the EU to the UK,(ii) increased emigration of EU migrants from the UK and (iii) reduced net migration flows from EU countries to the UK. However, there were no spillover impacts on the attractiveness of other EU countries as migration destinations. Overall, the findings show that the Brexit vote has had negative impact on migration in the UK, even before any policy change