Expert systems for implementing group consensus opinion in complex, weighted decisions

The development of an expert system for instrumentation and control operations is sometimes particularly difficult because (a) the expert system must implement the consensus opinion of a group of several human experts in all circumstances, (b) there may be 20 or more complex, dynamic, interrelated factors that influence the decision, each of which must be properly considered and weighed, and (c) the decision may involve choosing from several alternative courses of action, rather that a simple yes-no'' choice. These demanding requirements can discourage or, in some cases, prevent altogether the development of expert systems that are seriously needed and would by highly beneficial. However, the integration of a formal decision analysis method into the expert system as described in this paper can smooth the development phase of the expert system and provide high assurance of the success of the project. In virtually every case, regardless of the complexity of the problem, the approach outlined will provide an expert system to function on every decision just as if the human experts had assembled and performed a formal analysis to reach the overall best balanced decision. 6 refs., 8 figs.