Export als Bestimmungsfaktor der Beschäftigung : ökonomische Analysen auf makroökonomischer Ebene (Export as a determinant of employment : econometric analyses at macroeconomic level)

"The article examines the connection between export and employment from a macro-theoretical point of view on the basis of econometric analyses. The focus of interest is the question as to why the employment multiplier effect expected as a result of the strong export development, has so far failed to materialise. On the basis of production theory first of all the direct explanatory variables of employment are derived. The theoretical model is expanded amongst other things by export as an indirect determinant. The subsequent analysis deals firstly with the bivariate connection between export and employment, which can be quite justified under specific conditions. The values of the usual test statistics and obvious instabilities of the parameter estimations - demonstrated in particular by means of analyses on the basis of the flexible least squares method (FLS) - lead to the rejection of the bivariate model. Selected multiple model approaches, however, produce acceptable results. Significant explanatory variables which crystallise in addition to export are the (demand-related) utilisation, the factor price ratio and the capital variable. The latter clearly has the greatest significance in determining employment; nonetheless the explanatory variable of export proves to be considerable. The explanatory variables identified in addition to export are in principle capable of increasing or toning down the partial employment effects of export or of reversing them. Like employment they, too, are usually influenced by export, depending on the size of the relevant export multiplier. Empirical multiplier analyses on the basis of approximations point, however, to considerable instabilities in the relevant export multipliers, which can be held responsible as the main reasons for the total employment effects varying clearly in the periods under observation and possibly even turning negative." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))