Exports and outward FDI: are they complements or substitutes? Evidence from Asia

Purpose Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and its relationship with exports of home country is an important aspect of internationalization having implications for both policymakers and multinational enterprises (MNEs). This paper aims to examine this relationship by using panel data for ten major emerging countries from Asia over the period 1991-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors use panel vector auto regression, panel cointegration and causality tests in this study. Findings The authors find evidence of long-run causality from exports to OFDI. Further, exports and OFDI are found to be substitutes. There is no long-run causality from OFDI to exports, implying that MNEs are not “connecting” with home country firms through backward and forward linkages in the production process. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to deal with the relationship of OFDI with exports of the home country, for a group of developing/emerging countries.