Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand- and supply-side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two-stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long-run relationship indicates the existence of a demand-constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply-side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand-constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second-stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency-enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and 'social capital'. No role is found for labour market rigidities.