Factores asociados a la migración neta cero entre México y Estados Unidos, 2005-2015

This paper examines explanatory factors for the drop in the net migratory flow between Mexico and the United States to zero in the period 2005-2015. To do this, we used a pseudo-maximum likelihood Poisson gravitational model, estimating the state-to-state migration from Mexico to the United States with data from EMIF-North. The change with the greatest quantitative impact on migratory flows was the increase in the presence of the border patrol and the deportation policies for long-stay migrants, which decreased emigration and increased return. The drop in economic activity during the 2008 crisis diminished the attractiveness of destination economies, but also increased incentives to migrate at source. Other factors such as migratory networks, distance and population increase are also significant in explaining the migratory flows between the states of the two countries.