Factors Influencing the Severity of Damage in Bus Accidents in 2002 in Turkey : An Application of Ordered Response Models

This paper presents the use of ordered logit and probit models to bring light on the most significance factors that considerably change the severity of vehicle damages in bus accidents in 2002 in Turkey. Data recorded by The Department of Traffic Training and Research of General Directorate of Security Affairs of Turkey is used in this study and the severity of damages is classified according to four levels: no damage, little damage, damage of middling quality and high damage. With reference to the ordinality of the dependent variable determined as the severity of vehicle damages in bus accidents, the commonly used estimation techniques known as ordered response models are chosen to reveal the major risk factors.The results suggest that, all variables indicating the place of the accident, having an accident at night and all weather conditions increase the severity of damages. Traveling in the same direction in two-vehicle accidents occurring as bumping from one side of another vehicle, accidents occurring other than bumping rear-end, from one side, to a stationary material, to a stable vehicle and rollover, and high school-graduated drivers lead to low damages