Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1

Previous studies argue that the cumulation of mediations generally decreases uncertainty and ultimately helps to solve a conflict peacefully. Yet the empirical evidence for this is inconclusive, suggesting that existent theoretical accounts might be incomplete. For addressing this shortcoming, the paper develops an argument for a curvilinear relationship between the cumulation of mediations and mediation effectiveness. Based upon this rationale, it is less likely that initial mediation attempts succeed, but—after a turning point has been reached—subsequent mediations are more likely to induce an effective resolution of a dispute. The author also argues that this effect should be stronger if the same actors mediate over the course of a conflict. The empirical implications of this theoretical revision are tested in a quantitative framework employing data for 1816–2001. The results provide strong support for the theory.