Failure and Safety Analysis of Widespread Overhead Distribution Systems

Decision making in respect of hazard and safety analysis in the face of uncertain data in the management of widespread distribution systems is focused on. The narrow interpretation by Courts of the “foreseeable event” has become the benchmark of liability where power system failures have resulted in loss of life, injury or destruction of property; occurrences, the prediction of which relates more to the probability of extreme event combinations than to the assessment of availability by classically‐oriented reliability statistics. The work outlines a computer‐based inferential procedure which combines adverse weather to a probabilistic assessment of failure resulting from a combination of contributing events. The technique utilises Monte‐Carlo simulation in assigning the adverse weather to common mode data analysis in the derivation of failure state conditional probabilities. Limited sensitivity studies have been performed using Northern Rivers Electricity, emphasis being placed on evaluating preventative maintenance as a function of optimal time intervals, priorities and costs.