Falling From Grace: Nonestablished Brokerage Parties and the Weight of Predominance in Canadian Provinces and Australian States

Given the conventional meaning of party predominance—winning a majority of legislative seals in four or more consecutive elections—all sixteen subnational political systems (SPS) in Australia and Canada have featured at least one predominant party since the end of World War II. In Australia, no predominant party has failed ever again to hold office, and failed to secure even official opposition status for two consecutive elections, upon losing predominance. In Canada's central and Atlantic (CAC) provinces, only two of eleven predominant parties have failed. In Canada's four western provinces, however, three of six predominant parties have failed since governing after World War II. Several factors combine to produce differences among predominant parties in Australia and Canada. When these parties engage in brokerage politics, and therefore lack entrenched social foundations, and where patterns of socialized party identification have been interrupted, the “weight of predominance” can become fatal. Upon losing power, these parties may cease to be relevant. The worldwide proliferation of federal systems suggests that the life-cycles of SPS as just described may become more relevant with time. Copyright , Oxford University Press.