Farmers’ Rainfall Anticipation: Incidence and Patterns in Western Nigeria. Advantages of Focus and Problems of Extrapolation in Case Studies

Purpose This paper examines localized conditions and responses to what people see as ordinary variations in the weather , drawing on their own archive of knowledge and practice for “coping” with it, as distinct from year-to-year climate patterns that may entail “adaptation.” Design This paper draws on ethnographic field research and rainfall statistics collected in 1968–1969 and 1987–1988, in a rural area of Western Nigeria where guinea-savannah small-scale farmers now grow increasingly for the market. Research in the 1980s was designed to track all changes since the 1960s. It is revisited here to draw out the rainfall variable. Findings In the 1980s, farmers noted a decline in the first rains of the early growing season, and a change in the short dry season, over a period of three years, in a way that differed from the expected patterns of twenty years previously. The shift is confirmed by rainfall statistics. Their crop repertoire choices are noted. Limitations and research implications The paper’s themes are culled from a broader range of observations over the 20 years. The interweaving of the variables in complex change over several decades is noted as a research challenge. Originality Local time series, interpreted through the local archive of social and technical practice, offers a rich entry point into what the recent AAA climate change review refers to as coping and adaptation, with respect to what I call “weather” and “climate.”