Financial crises, stock returns and volatility in an emerging stock market: the case of Jordan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine stock returns behavior during financial crises for an emerging market from 1992 to 2009. The authors identify episodes of significant price declines “crashes” and watch the stock price behavior during these episodes. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines seven historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the ASE over the last 18 years. The authors examine the behavior of stock returns and volatility in ASE during global, regional and local events. For this purpose the GARCH-M model is used to capture changes in variance. The data covers the period from January 1, 1992 to July 2, 2009 with different data frequency of daily, weekly and monthly closing prices for ASE general weighted price index. The authors use the crisis specification adopted by Mishkin and White where they define stock market crash as 20 percent decline in the stock market, and the one adopted by Patel and Sarker where they use a 35 percent or more fall in emerging stock market from its historical maximum as a definition of stock market crash, and the authors extend by adopting a third scenario to account only for the 2008-2009 crisis. Findings – The results show that crises in general have negative impact on stock returns for all sectors, with the banking sector being the most affected. The effect of the 2008-2009 crash is the most severe, with the largest drop in stock prices and high volatilities. The paper provides an evidence of high persistence in volatility and strong reverse relationship between stock return and its volatility before and after the crises. Research limitations/implications – The paper does not include rest-of-the-world economies. Practical implications – Stock return behavior change around financial crises, it can help the investment world and the academics predict stock return behavior and the dynamics of the first two moments during crises. Originality/value – The authors use three crisis specifications in one paper adopted by Mishkin and White (2002), Patel and Sarker (1998) and extend by adopting a third scenario to account only for the 2008-2009 crisis. The paper tests for robustness of the results using daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies. Few studies have examined the behavior of stock returns and volatility during financial crises with the majority of work done on developed markets. JEL classification: G01