Financial Crisis: Estimating the Risk of Assets in Balance

We propose a model able to estimate the risk of assets in balance from aggregate data by introducing a prudential measure called Filtered Historical Spectral Asset Measure (FH - SAM). Our measure combines a model based method to simulate the evolution of volatility with model free method of distribution. It provides a robust methodology to simulate the evolution of risk. The paper extends the debate in the literature about the tools for estimating the risk of assets for a financial institution in case of distress and systemic risk (Stiglitz et al. 2002; Lucas and McDonald 2006).