Financial Intermediary Development and Output Fluctuations: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis on ASEAN-5 Plus 3

This paper examines the direct and indirect effects of financial intermediary development on output fluctuations based on the theoretical works by Bacchetta and Caminal (2000) and Beck, Lundberg and Majnoni (2006). According to credit market imperfections, well-developed financial intermediaries dampen the effect of real sector shocks and magnify the effect of monetary shocks on output fluctuations. This paper examines whether financial intermediaries serve as shock absorbers or shock magnifiers that mitigate or amplify the effect of real and monetary shocks on output fluctuations. Using data from 8 countries of ASEAN-5 Plus 3, the empirical results indicate that (1) there is strong and robust evidence for the dampening effect of financial intermediary development on output fluctuations via the propagation of real shocks, (2) there is somewhat weak evidence for the magnifying effect of financial intermediary development via the propagation of monetary shocks and (3) financial intermediary development has strong direct impact on output fluctuations if countries are bankdependent in the cointegration regression.