Fine-Particulate Air Pollution and Behaviorally Inclusive Mortality Impacts of China's Winter Heating Policy, 2013-2018

Almond et al., published in the American Economic Review in 2009, spurred an influential literature that exploits quasi-experimental spatial variation in atmospheric emissions associated with winter heating policies in the world’s most populous nation, China. Our study takes advantage of an unprecedented expansion of pollution and mortality surveillance, covering at least 10 times more sites, finer particles, and an alternative external definition of the policy boundary. We estimate policy-induced spatial discontinuities in pollution and mortality that shrink over time, consistent with tighter emissions regulations, higher quality medical care, and increased air quality disclosure to – and defensive behavior by – the public