Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC.

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecat pooling.

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Year of publication:	1999
Authors:	Artis, M. ; Marcellino, M.
Institutions:	Department of Economics, European University Institute
Subject:	ECONOMIC MODELS \| FORECASTS \| DEFICIT

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Series:	Economics Working Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	31 pages
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation ; H62 - Deficit; Surplus
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005744337