Flood Risk Assessment through Bayesian Networks : Effects of Adaptive and Coping Capacity in Risk Reduction to People

The following BN focuses on how to identify costs related to the first exposure category: people. This is based on the methodology of Defra (2009) and further developed with Penning Roswell et al. (2005), Department of transport UK (2007), OECD (2012). Hazard (H) is described with the light blue nodes, exposure (E) with the green nodes, vulnerability (V) with the orange nodes and the costs with the yellow nodes. Vulnerability is given by susceptibility and some adaptive and coping capacities variables affecting the injuries rate (over75 and disabled), risk governance (risk awareness, per capita number of trained volunteers) and early warning effectiveness (reliability and lead time). A knowledge-based approach to flood risk reduction is captured by acting on the early warning effectiveness and on the risk governance