Flow-Graph and Markovian Methods for Cyber Security Analysis

A flow-graph depicts the interrelationships among cyber security and security threats/incidents (i.e., internal, external, and accidental). Using a flow-graph, the manner in which security threats may affect systems can be investigated. This paper reports analytical approaches to analyze time to security threats and probability of security threat occurrence. Considering embedded threat detection functions in a safe-guard unit, the proposed approaches use the flow-graph concept, and Markovian method to calculate time to security threat occurrence and its probability. The threat detection functions are featured by incident detection and recovery mechanisms. The results of this study can be used by all parties (public and private sector organizations, service providers, IT, and insurance companies) to better deal with cyber security issues with respect to utilizing technology, investment, and insurance. An illustrative example is demonstrated to present the application of the approach.