Food Security Constrained-Optimization Modeling : Informing Policymakers on Choice Variables

Background: Although the food crisis of 2007/2008 was a global one, arid countries, particularly those in the Arab region, were especially hard hit. Many subsequent policy prescriptions for food security emanated from multilateral organizations, NGOs and the countries themselves. While still proposing more secure ways to source from outside, most proposals stressed greater reliance on domestic production, to shield dry-land countries from external price volatility and the risk of supply termination from exporting countries. The challenges facing arid countries desirous of enhancing domestic food supply are many — lack of water, insufficient arable land, underdeveloped infrastructure and supply-chain mechanisms among many. Yet many arid countries are experimenting with ways to overcome these hurdles and, if successful, will be effectively characterized by emerging, if not embryonic, agricultural sectors. For such countries, given scarce land and water resources that must be considered public goods, some planning function is needed, at least in the initial period of the emergence of what must be considered infant industries. Some form of crop-production allocation will be necessary, but allocation strategy should not be akin to a rigid planned-economy formulation. Market forces and incentives should be employed to the greatest extent possible to motivate crop allocation to a social optimum, given whatever physical, social, political and cultural constraints may exist