Food security in the context of climate change in Pakistan

The present study determines the impact of climate change on wheat production along with its per capita availability. The study is different from previous studies as it considers the irrigated and rain-fed regions of the Punjab province. Separate production functions are used for the irrigated and rain-fed regions. Tests for determining normality, linearity, autocorrelation and multicollinearity are also applied. Results show that in the irrigated region, rising maximum temperature during January and November has negative effect, whereas variables such as wheat area, minimum temperature during November and March are positively related with wheat production. Considering the rain-fed region, minimum temperature during February and November has significant impact on wheat production whereas rainfall in the month of March is negatively related with wheat production. Three different scenarios used to project future impact of temperature and rainfall on wheat indicate a decline in future per capita availability of wheat as a result of climate change, in addition to rising population in Pakistani Punjab. Considering an increase in temperature by 3oC in 2050, per capita availability of wheat would be only 84 kg per annum compared to 198 kg per annum in 2012. So adaptation to climate change in the forms of new varieties and better management practices would lessen the impact of climate change.