Food security resilience to shocks in Niger : preliminary findings on potential measurement, drivers and challenges from LSMS-ISA data : RESIFOOD project

The measurement of food security resilience (FSR) to shocks is yet hampered by inherent aspects of its complexity along with that of food security assessment itself. Yet, there is an urgent need for scientific evidence on which to base decision-making and policies to build resilience. Niger is one of the most underdeserved and underdevelopped coutries worldwide. We took advantage of the LSMS-ISA data to attempt defining as flexibly as possible the concept of FSR and move forward with its measurement and the investigation of policy-actionable drivers taking a multisectorial perspective. Food security was measured as reportedly self-assessed by household heads through Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) collected by panel design in two waves from September to November 2014 (post-planting) and January to March 2015 (post-harvest) and representative of Niger and 26 additional strata representing settings and agroecological zones. According to changes in food security status (food secure vs food insecure) from one wave to the next, we identify four potential trajectories, two of which are compatible with resilient trajectories of recovery and resistance to shock impacts. Two exposures were considered, rain deficits at onset of rainy season (May-June) or being affected by drought in previous year to the time of interview. Weighted estimates of each trajectory were provided for the country and rural vs urban areas. Associations with socio-economic factors were explored using multinomial logistic regression models. Our preliminary findings point to a severe lack of food security in general and in particular lack of FSR to shocks in the country, and extremely low FSR in rural areas. A better road network, access to markets, improved rural-urban connectivity and increasing education level might be helpful in building up resilience. Farmers and female-headed households are particular vulnerable groups and need special and effective protection policies to improve their FSR.