Forced Migration and Food Crises : A Coming Catastrophe?

Food insecurity is a pressing global concern and little is known of its economic outreach. This paper quantifies the effects of food crises on international forced migration (FIMs) flows using a structural gravity model. We construct a dataset that measures the severity, intensity, and causes of the food crises. Results suggest that food crises increase international forced migration. While mild food crises skew international migrants to developed and non-neighbouring countries, more severe events tend to divert them to closer destinations. The results obtained appear to indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration and that these constraints worsen as the food crisis intensifies. Under more severe food crises, migrants may lack the necessary resources to afford the higher costs of migrating internationally, and particularly to a developed nation, thus choosing a closer destination or migrating internally