Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns
Recent work by <link rid="b7">Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina (2002)</link> has established a negative relationship between stock returns and the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts. I offer a simple explanation for this phenomenon based on the interpretation of dispersion as a proxy for unpriced information risk arising when asset values are unobservable. The relationship then follows from a general options-pricing result: For a levered firm, expected returns should always decrease with the level of idiosyncratic asset risk. This story is formalized with a straightforward model. Reasonable parameter values produce large effects, and the theory's main empirical prediction is supported in cross-sectional tests. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.
Year of publication: |
2004
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Authors: | JOHNSON, TIMOTHY C. |
Published in: |
Journal of Finance. - American Finance Association - AFA, ISSN 1540-6261. - Vol. 59.2004, 5, p. 1957-1978
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Publisher: |
American Finance Association - AFA |
Saved in:
Saved in favorites
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