Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Using Information from Firm-Level Data

In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of reallocation. We show that these components improve aggregate total factor productivity forecasts in a simple univariate setting, even when firm-level data are available with a time lag. Lagged firm-level information also improves aggregate productivity forecasts when we combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models using Bayesian model averaging techniques. © 2014 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology