Forecasting inflation? Target the middle

The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it’s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC’s preferred measure, than the core PCE.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Meyer, Brent ; Venkatu, Guhan ; Zaman, Saeed
Published in:	Economic Commentary. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. - 2013, Apr, 05
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Subject:	Forecasting \| Inflation (Finance) \| Consumer price indexes

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011234946