Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.

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Year of publication:	2008
Authors:	Caraiani, Petre
Published in:	Journal for Economic Forecasting. - Institutul de Prognoza Economica. - Vol. 5.2008, 1, p. 182-192
Publisher:	Institutul de Prognoza Economica
Subject:	forecasting methods \| DSGE models \| Bayesian methods \| real business cycles

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	E60 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook. General ; C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005272637