Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Caraiani, Petre
Published in:	Journal for Economic Forecasting. - Institutul de Prognoza Economica. - Vol. 6.2009, 3, p. 75-84
Publisher:	Institutul de Prognoza Economica
Subject:	forecasting methods \| DSGE models \| Bayesian methods \| real business cycles

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Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Classification:	E60 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook. General ; C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472210