Forward look 2024 : managing uncertainty

For the EU, 2024 will be marked by elections and institutional change. Together with a large number of elections worldwide, not least the US presidential elections, they will both be affected by, and contribute to, global uncertainty. Whilst the timing of elections is largely pre-determined, the context in which they take place is not. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and this year's outbreak of war in the Middle East are symptomatic of an upending of a familiar geopolitical landscape but have also themselves contributed to a more fragmented world. At the same time, we see challenges to our economic systems. This is partly because global fragmentation has led to a breakdown in mutual trust, but also because of the accumulation of demands on national budgets, and all this against the background of relentless pressure driven by the urgent need to address climate change. This cumulation of uncertainties might lead to the conclusion that any exercise of trying to look ahead risks being futile. The alternative is of course to resign ourselves to conducting policy in an entirely reactive mode, letting events dictate our agenda. The Forward Look 2024, the third in the series, takes a different approach. It suggests that we need to accept the volatility of what lies ahead, but at the same time tries to explain it and offer tools which can help readers and policymakers to navigate the uncertainties which will shape not only the year ahead, but also (crucially) the longer term. The report attributes the uncertainty which will dominate 2024 to three key factors: global disorder, shifting economics, and the numerous important elections taking place across the world.