From Hyper-globalization to Global Value Chains Decoupling: Withering Global Trade Governance?

Those speaking notes are a contribution to the panel on “Future of Business: Disruptions and Strategic Impact”. While the 1990s and early 2000s were seen as a golden age for Global Value Chains, the 2010s have witnessed a series of crisis that shacked the political and institutional foundations of global trade. After years of neo-liberal trade policies, trend is now towards neo-realist mercantilism and trade politics. The COVID-19 pandemics and the rise of geopolitical tensions are redefining and perhaps reversing what have been the drivers of world trade since the end of the Cold War in 1989. Geopolitical and institutional uncertainties increase the chance of unpredictable or unforeseen event disrupting entire international segments of the value chain, with potentially extreme consequences. When fat-tailed black-swans run around like headless chickens, disruptions are unpredictable. Yet, understanding the main changes affecting the geo-politics of trade and the possibilities of safeguarding a functional global trade governance is expected to reduce the risks and help future managers preparing for new business paradigms.