Future inequality in Carbon Dioxide emissions and the projected impact of abatement proposals

The authors analyze inequality in future carbon emissions using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declining, but slowly. They also measure the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II (non-Eastern European high income) countries in 2010, focusing on their gap narrowing and reranking effects. Per capita emissions of Annex II and non-Annex II countries will probably not be substantially reranked unless the Annex II countries reduce their emissions by at least half (from 1990 levels) and emissions from non-Annex II countries continue growing unabated.