Genuine saving trajectory and vulnerability: the example of New-Caledonia

The aim of this article is to study the vulnerability of the New-Caledonian economy from the analysis of the historical trajectories of genuine saving and its component linked to natural capital. To this end, we calculate New-Caledonia's genuine saving, in accordance with the World Bank's approach. This calculation enables the assertion that at first glance the New-Caledonian economy doesn't show vulnerability signs insofar as the appreciation of assets linked to physical and human capital more than compensated the depreciation of assets linked to natural capital between 1970 and 2007. However, the analysis of the various components of the genuine saving trajectory using a Kalman filter reveals threshold effects in the nickel sector, thresholds from which the sustainability of New-Caledonia's development trajectory may be challenged.