Geoeconomia e protecionismo : novas configurações do comércio internacional

The objective of this discussion paper is to examine the geoeconomic landscape following the 2025 election of Donald Trump, focusing on the expansion of protectionism, its repercussions for food security, and its impacts on global value chains, particularly within agribusiness and sectors associated with the energy transition process. The analysis addresses the increase in tariffs and potential retaliatory measures, demonstrating how such practices may influence prices, redirect trade flows, and intensify diplomatic tensions. It also evaluates the United States stance regarding climate commitments and environmental policies, as well as the regression in the promotion of clean energy. Furthermore, the paper explores Brazil's position in response to these developments and the implications for its commercial integration and climate strategy. Finally, it suggests that, despite the rise of protectionism, adaptive and cooperative initiatives exist that can mitigate macroeconomic risks and secure stability in the food supply