Geothermal investment analysis with site-specific applications to Roosevelt Hot Springs and Cove Fort-Sulphurdale, Utah

The analysis and modeling of investment behavior in the development of hydrothermal electric power facilities are reported. This investment behavior reflects a degree of sensitivity to public policy alternatives concerning taxation and regulation of the resource and its related energy conversion facilities. The objective of the current research is to provide a realistic and theoretically sound means for estimating the impacts of such public policy alternatives. A stochastic simulation model was developed which offers an efficient means for site-specific investment analysis of private sector firms and investors. The results of the first year of work are discussed including the identification, analysis, quantification and modeling of: a decision tree reflecting the sequence of procedures, timing and stochastic elements of hydrothermal resource development projects; investment requirements, expenses and revenues incurred in the exploration, development and utilization of hydrothermal resources for electric power generation; and multiattribute investment decision criteria of the several types of firms in the geothermal industry. An application of the investment model to specific resource sites in the state of Utah is also described. Site specific data for the Known Geothermal Resource Areas of Roosevelt Hot Springs and Cove Fort-Sulphurdale are given together with hypothesized generation capacity growth rates.