German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables

We examine the efficiency of German forecasts for output growth and inflation allowing for an asymmetric loss function of the forecasters. We find the loss of output growth forecasts to be approximately symmetric while there is an asymmetry in the loss of the inflation forecasts. The information of financial variables seems to be adequately incorporated into the output forecasts but to a lesser extent into the inflation forecasts.

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Krüger, Jens J. ; Hoss, Julian
Published in:	Economics Letters. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1765. - Vol. 114.2012, 3, p. 284-287
Publisher:	Elsevier
Subject:	Macroeconomic forecasting \| Asymmetric loss \| Financial markets

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	C32 - Time-Series Models ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041713