Global Prediction of Recessions

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.

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Year of publication:	2015-03-17
Authors:	Dovern, Jonas ; Huber, Florian
Institutions:	Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften
Subject:	GVAR \| recession forecast \| QPS \| probability forecast

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Extent:	text/html application/pdf
Series:	Working Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html Number 0585
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011202996