Global recessions and booms : what do probit models tell us?

Ursel Baumann, Ramón Gómez Salvador, Franz Seitz

We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.

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Year of publication:	June 2018
Authors:	Baumann, Ursel ; Gómez Salvador, Ramón ; Seitz, Franz
Publisher:	Amberg-Weiden : Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule (OTH)
Subject:	Global GDP \| Probit \| turning points \| Probit-Modell \| Probit model \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Nationaleinkommen \| National income \| Welt \| World \| Wirtschaftskrise \| Economic crisis \| Globalisierung \| Globalization \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator \| Finanzkrise \| Financial crisis \| Bruttoinlandsprodukt \| Gross domestic product \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Weidener Diskussionspapiere. - Weiden : OTH, ZDB-ID 2747285-1. - Vol. Nr. 61 (Juni 2018)
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Zusammenfassung in deutscher Sprache
ISBN:	978-3-937804-63-7
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/180214 [Handle]
Classification:	C34 - Truncated and Censored Models ; C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865195