Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the motivations that lead business forecasters to this sometimes counter-productive behavior, and offer a series of recommendations to ensure that forecast adjustments are made for the right reasons. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007