Good Patterns, Bad Patterns

Past occurrences of an event very often serve as analogies for forecasting the impact of the new occurrence of this event. The reliability of the analogy, Roy tells us, lies in the proper balance of data interpretation and good judgment. Uncritical examination of the past data can lead to false analogies – the extrapolation of patterns that do not apply to the case at hand. Judgment unsupported by the data can make for some foolish investments. It’s an important lesson, and Roy presents three current examples to illustrate the proper and improper application of event analogies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012