Graduation tables: a proposal for a demographic analysis of educational indicators in Brazil

Demographic censuses usually contain information about a graded education system, i.e. age and grade declarations. This information can be used to estimate a series of indicators, useful for diagnostics and prognostics of the educational system. One of the principal goals of this paper is to provide a new technical framework to forecast population by levels of schooling, in a country or region. It follows in the tradition of formal demographic methodologies used in analyzing and projecting population, such as Life Tables. Thus, one could study the probable social consequences of the implementation of any educational policies related to promotion and retention practices, over the medium and long runs. The methodological procedures were applied to the five Brazilian Regions, although it could be applied to other countries or regions that have the information of grades concluded by age.