Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Beyond the Nationally Determined Contributions in Chile : An Assessment of Alternatives

In support of the Climate Action Teams initiative, we evaluate Chile's potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation beyond its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through implementing ambitious actions. An open multisector model is used to project GHG emissions. The results indicate that additional efforts are required to meet Chile's NDC commitments. However, ambitious actions could yield a significant mitigation surplus at a reasonable cost, with a maximum potential of 75 (65–82) MtCO2e beyond the committed carbon budget. About one-third of this potential can be achieved at a mean abatement cost of less than 20 USD/tCO2e, and an additional 65% can be obtained with a mean abatement cost ranging between 20 and 50 USD/tCO2e. The estimated capital cost required for implementing these actions is 5.3 (4.9–5.3) billion USD from 2020 to 2030. In addition to mitigating GHG emissions, these actions also have significant health co-benefits, with an estimated avoidance of up to 2,250 (2,180–2,320) premature PM2.5-induced deaths between 2020 and 2030. The health co-benefit between 2020 and 2030 is estimated to be around 1.5 billion USD. The study also suggests that an early coal-power phase-out is not the most efficient mitigation action in the power sector. We estimate that a carbon tax between 40–45 USD/tCO2e could achieve the same level of emissions reduction as closing coal-fired power by 2025 but at a significantly lower cost