Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?

This paper investigates the role of credit supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural VAR analysis to identify credit supply shocks separately from standard macroeconomic shocks. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the recent financial crisis and 1/3 – 1/2 of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks.