Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages in China, Japan, and South Korea : An Estimation Based on the Counterfactual Estimation Method

This article uses macro-level data from China, Japan, and South Korea, and employs a counterfactual estimation method to examine the health capacity to work at aged 50 and above. This study finds that, first, the health status of the elderly population in China, Japan, and South Korea has consistently improved from 1982 to 2020, but the labor force participation rate has not seen an equivalent increase alongside the improvement in health. Second, the gap in labor force participation rates of women aged 50 and above between China, and Japan and South Korea has widened over the past two decades, from 0.61% and 1.33% in 2000 to 11.97% and 7.39% in 2020, respectively. Third, based on the counterfactual estimation method and using 1982 as a reference, the additional capacity to work of Chinese individuals aged 50 to 64 in 2020 is estimated to be 16.96% for men and 23.5% for women; whereas for Japanese and South Korean men, the estimates are 4.53% and 12.32%, respectively. Furthermore, it is estimated in 2020 that Chinese men and women aged 50 to 64 will have worked 2.54 years more than they did in 1982, while Japanese and South Korean men are estimated to have worked 1.85 years and 0.68 years more