Hedge Effectiveness Forecasting

This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly computed hedging effectiveness in the hedge ratio regression will also generally overstate the amount of risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (c) the overstatement in (b) declines as the sample size increases, (d) application of estimated hedge ratios to non sample data results in an unbiased estimate of hedging effectiveness, (e) application of hedge ratios computed from small samples presents a significant chance of actually increasing price risk by hedging, and (f) comparison of in sample and out of sample hedging effectiveness is not the best method for testing for structural change in the hedge ratio regression.