Heuristics in an Air Pollution Control Cost Model: The "AIRCOST" Model of the Electric Utility Industry

A number of uncertainties associated with national air pollution policy are currently being analyzed by the United States Congress, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Department of Energy (DOE) with the aid of a large-scale model of electric utility plant emissions under the 1983 Clean Air Act Amendments called AIRCOST. The AIRCOST methodology combines a "supply side" economics approach with detailed plant by plant models that result in substantial spatial and technological resolution. In fact, the resulting emissions projections are being used as input to separate air pollution transport models for the evaluation of "acid rain" impacts. This paper documents and partially validates this methodology with which a critical segment of U.S. air pollution policy has been and is continuing to be analyzed.