HIV/AIDS and Agrarian Livelihoods in Zambia: A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis

Since the southern African food crisis of 2001/02, the ‘new-variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis first proposed by de Waal and Whiteside (2003) has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in the region. The NVF hypothesis suggests that HIV/AIDS is eroding agrarian livelihoods and exacerbating the effects of drought and other shocks on agrarian communities. These concepts have begun to shape the HIV/AIDS mitigation and food security policies and programs of governments and development agencies. To date, however, there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support the NVF hypothesis, and there have been no studies specifically designed to tests its predictions.