Horizontal transshipment technologies as enablers of combined transport: Impact of transport policies on the modal split

The technological solutions for the horizontal transshipment of non-liftable semi-trailers allow the decision makers in the transport market to consider an additional transport alternative to road transportation in the mode choice decision: combined transport. This study explores the modal split between road freight transport and combined transport that is enabled by horizontal transshipment technologies, given a dependence on the changing transport mode characteristics that are caused by direct intervention through transport policies as well as by changing environmental factors such as increasing freight volume or diesel prices. In addition, the impact of the heterogeneous forwarders’ business models is considered. To estimate the modal split between the road and the combined transport, we combine a Bass model with a discrete choice model. Based on the data derived from an online questionnaire distributed to German forwarders, the model estimates a maximum 42% market penetration ratio for the combined transport. This ratio is captured with the help of the direct subsidization of rail line hauling, which is consequently the strongest lever for the modal shift. This lever is followed by the introduction of long trains, bringing a maximum market penetration of approximately 35%. We reveal that the policies that directly promote combined transport have a stronger effect on the modal shift than the policies that discriminate against road transport. Furthermore, we find that the leverage of the transport policies for the medium range distances is significantly higher than for the long distances. These results can be used as a decision support by government officials for the configuration of their specific transport policies as well as by logistics service providers to adjust their technology investment decisions based on the anticipated user demand in different situations.