How Air Pollution Affects Civil Conflict : Empirical Analyses on Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Air pollution has become an increasingly prominent and essential global challenge over the decades. However, the domestic political effects of air pollution have often been neglected. This study empirically tests the causal relationship and deep-seated mechanisms between air pollution and domestic conflicts based on unique meteorological data (1946–2018) for all low- and middle-income countries. Using mean wind speed and mean air pollution over the past five years as instrumental variables for air pollution, the empirical results show that increased air pollution is accompanied by a key higher risk of civil conflict, especially in poor sub-Saharan Africa, where both the frequency of civil war outbreaks and the intensity of conflict increase dramatically. Mechanism analyses reveal that air pollution further exacerbates social polarization, reduces the size of regime supporters and political trust, and significantly weakens regime legitimacy and the personal authority of state leaders. This provides an excellent opportunity for anti-government mobilization and ultimately promotes the rise of domestic anti-system movements and separatism, plunging countries into protracted unrest and conflict. This study complements existing literature on conflict issues and provides valuable insights into the prevention of systemic risks and threats posed by air pollution in China and other countries